February 26, 2021
The Honorable Muriel Bowser
Mayor of the District of Columbia
1350 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Suite 306
Washington, DC 20004
The Honorable Phil Mendelson
Chairman
Council of the District of Columbia
1350 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Suite 504
Washington, DC 20004
Re: February 2021 Revenue Estimates
Dear Mayor Bowser and Chairman Mendelson:
This letter certifies the revenue estimate for the FY 2022–FY 2025 District of Columbia Budget and Financial Plan. The revised estimate increases the current FY 2021–FY 2024 financial plan revenue by $227 million. This, combined with prior revisions, leaves a financial plan deficit of $235 million to be addressed. Revenue for FY 2021 is $141.8 million (-1.7 percent) below the FY 2020 revenue level and grows $387.5 million (+4.8 percent) in FY 2022. Revenue is expected to return to the FY 2019 level of $8.3 billion in FY 2022 as vaccines are deployed and the economy recovers.
| Actual | Estimated | Projected | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Local Source, General Fund Revenue | ||||||
Estimate ($M) | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
FY 2021 BUDGETED REVENUE |
| 8,037.7 | 8,491.0 | 8,762.2 | 9,069.4 |
|
September revision |
| -211.9 | -209.7 | -190 | -170.4 |
|
December revision* |
| 68.4 | 56.9 | 101.7 | 93.2 |
|
February revision* |
| 113.8 | 57.3 | 36.7 | 19.0 |
|
Total revisions to budgeted revenue |
| -29.7 | -95.5 | -51.6 | -58.2 |
|
February 2021 Revenue Estimate | 8,149.8 | 8,008.0 | 8,395.5 | 8,710.6 | 9,011.2 | 9,297.4 |
Revenue Change from Previous Year | ||||||
Amount | (165.0) | (141.8) | 387.5 | 315.1 | 300.6 | 286.2 |
Year-Over Year Percent Change | -2.0% | -1.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% |
December and February revisions largely related to better than expected individual and business income taxes for the non-COVID impacted sectors of the economy and the impact of federal relief. | ||||||
Our assumptions about the re-opening timeline are unchanged, but the large injection of federal spending is expected to accelerate the recovery once the re-opening phases occur. On the downside, the COVID-19 impact on commercial real property markets will be a drag on revenue growth in FY 2022 and beyond. Lower income from hotel, apartment, and office properties in calendar year 2020 are reflected in preliminary real property assessments to be sent out in March and will be the basis for real property tax revenues in FY 2022. Beyond FY 2022, greater levels of remote work will limit growth in the value of commercial office properties.
The table below shows the re-opening timeline assumptions underlying the estimate. We expect Phase II of ReOpenDC to maintain restrictions on economic activity until Spring 2021. Fortunately, the availability and deployment of at least two vaccines is expected to accelerate the recovery in the second half of the fiscal year and slightly improve the overall economic outlook for FY 2021, moving the District to Phase IV of ReOpenDC when most restrictions are lifted.
Winter 2020/2021 | Spring/Summer 2021 | Fall 2021 |
|---|---|---|
Phase II | Phase III | Phase IV |
|
|
|
Note: adapted from ReOpenDC phased restrictions | ||
We expect the economy to continue its current path of recovery. The federal relief package enacted in December 2020 has improved the economic outlook. Also, the American Rescue Plan Act, now moving through Congress will further improve the outlook, particularly for FY 2021. The enhanced unemployment insurance, extended Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), additional economic impact payments, and substantial state government assistance will prepare the economy for the pent-up demand for restaurants, retail, entertainment, and travel when the pandemic is finally brought under control.
The pandemic significantly changed the trajectory of District local fund revenue. In the February 2020 estimate, growth was projected to be 1.7 percent following a strong FY 2019. However, the pandemic economy resulted in a contraction of 2 percent in FY 2020. Cumulatively, over the FY 2021-FY 2024 financial plan, District revenue was $2.6 billion below the pre-COVID-19 projections.
Revenue Highlights
Because of the pandemic, the performance of District revenue sources was affected by developments in three areas:
Pandemic Public Health Restrictions. Revenue sources, such as sales and deed taxes and licenses and fines which are tied to in-person customers, commuters or occupied offices, were most affected by the business activity restrictions required to control the spread of COVID-19. These taxes combined declined more than 20 percent in FY 2020 and are expected to decline further in FY 2021. With the federal relief package being considered, and assumed in this estimate, we do not expect a change in the re-open schedule but we do expect a stronger “return to “normal” as grants and relief funds keep families and businesses whole until they can go out again and reopen.
Business support and remote work. Conversely, revenue from individual and business income taxes, one-third of 2019 general fund revenue, has not been disrupted. In the case of business income taxes, the revenue outlook has exceeded the pre-COVID-19 projection because of the ability to transition to telework for many employers, business relief, the Federal reserve monetary policy, and a soaring stock market.
Office and residential space. The transition to remote work has allowed a significant share of employment in the District to remain unaffected by the pandemic, but it could also lead to shrinking demand for office space and changes in residential preferences. Reductions in office space use and preferences for residences farther away from places of work could have a deleterious effect on the outlook for real property taxes collected from large office and multifamily properties as well as deed taxes from the sale of those assets.
Real property tax
Real property tax revenue is revised upward by $64.4 million in FY 2021 to reflect final bills mailed to taxpayers in February for March 2021 collection. However, real property tax revenue was revised downward by $40.1 million in FY 2022, $80.2 million in FY 2023, and $91.5 million in FY 2024. These downward revisions reflect the pandemic's impact on assessments that will be mailed in March, as well as forecasted trends in office and apartment leasing markets gleaned from extensive research and discussions with real estate professionals. Large office building value, which comprise 35 percent of all District assessed value (and 45 percent of tax liability due to the higher commercial tax rate) is forecasted to grow less than 1 percent in FY 2021 and contract by 9.7 percent in FY 2022 before stabilizing.
Sales tax
Sales tax collections continue to be impacted by the pandemic public health restrictions limiting retail and hospitality activities in the District. After a decline of 23.5 percent in FY 2020, gross sales taxes before earmarks is forecasted to decline 8.9 percent in FY 2021. However, the significant federal relief and grants to District businesses should result in a stronger recovery in FY 2022, and sales taxes, driven by restaurant, hotels, and entertainment venues re-opening, is expected to grow 33 percent. Sales tax revenue recovers to the 2019 level in FY 2023.
Income taxes
Both individual and business income tax revenues have been revised upward. The strong stock market, the ability to work remotely for many employees, and significant federal relief support individual income tax revenue, which is expected to grow 3.1 percent in FY 2021, and 3.4 percent in FY 2022. By FY 2023, individual income tax revenue growth returns to trend of about 4.5 percent.
Corporate franchise revenue in FY 2021 is expected to decline from FY 2020, not because of corporate profit weakness, but because the FY 2020 revenue included significant one-time prior year collections. Corporate franchise revenue is expected to grow 2.8 percent in FY 2022 and 3.5 percent in FY 2023.
Unincorporated business franchise tax revenue will be positively impacted by federal and District relief programs aimed at supporting rent and lease payments, but collections are expected to decline in FY 2021 despite an upward revision of $11.6 million. In FY 2022, unincorporated franchise tax is expected to grow 1.2 percent and about 1.5 percent through FY 2025. The support provided by federal and District relief offsets the underlying weakness in apartment and office leasing that make up a significant part of the unincorporated business taxable activity.
Deed taxes
Deed taxes for residential properties remain strong as sales of single family homes, particularly high-value homes, have been strong since Summer 2020. However, office and multifamily sales were weak and total deed recordation and transfer taxes declined 19.3 percent in FY 2020. Collections will grow modestly at 1 percent in FY 2021 but don't recover to 2019 levels until FY 2023.
Non-tax revenue
Non-tax revenue is expected to decline 27 percent in FY 2021, as public health restrictions affect traffic enforcement operation, permitting, and private car demand with a rebound of 21.3 percent growth in FY 2022 as the economy reopens. Revenues from licenses, fees, fines and forfeitures do not recover during the financial plan period to the FY 2019 peak, mostly reflecting changes in commuting and future construction activity.
National and Regional Economies
The spread of COVID-19 around the globe brought the pattern of steady growth in the national economy to an abrupt halt, ending the longest period of expansion in U.S. history. Unprecedented fiscal relief from the federal government and accommodating monetary policy from the Federal Reserve appears to have contained much of the damage caused by the pandemic. Real GDP contracted 3.5 percent in calendar year 2020 after projections last summer of a 6 percent decline. Real GDP is estimated to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of FY 2021.
U.S. employment declined 6.0 percent in the 3-month period that ended December 2020 from the same period in 2019. The U.S. unemployment rate was 6.5 percent in December 2020, up from 3.4 percent in December 2019.
U.S. personal income grew 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 over the prior year, and wages grew 2.7 percent. Federal relief boosted personal income throughout 2020 with the largest impact in the 2nd quarter from the economic impact payments, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, was 2.5 percent lower in the 4th quarter of calendar year 2020 than 4th quarter 2019.
The S&P 500 stock market index ended January 2021 at 3,714, down 1.1 percent year-to-date and 15 percent above the end of January 2020.
Washington metropolitan employment declined 5.1 percent in the 3-month period that ended December 2020 over the prior year. Metro area unemployment rate was 5.6 percent in December, up from 2.6 percent in 2019.
District employment for the 3-month period that ended December 2020 was 6.3 percent lower than in 2019, and the unemployment rate was 7.6 percent in December 2020, up from 5.0 percent in 2019.
District personal income grew 5.4 percent in FY 2020 over FY 2019, and wages earned in the District grew 1.9 percent. Wages for District residents grew 2.0 percent.
The number of single family and condominium sales grew by 6.1 percent in FY 2020 and the value of sales grew 11.8 percent.
Air travel to District-area airports was down 69 percent in November 2020 compared to the prior year and hotel occupancy was 16.4 percent in December compared to 59.5 percent in December 2019.
Economic Outlook
The economic outlook for the District's economy is consistent with national projections — following a contraction in 2020, a recovery process has begun that will continue through the end of calendar year 2021. It will take even longer for employment levels to return to where they were prior to the public health emergency. This outlook is generally consistent with forecasts for the U.S. economy by the Congressional Budget Office and with national and D.C. forecasts prepared by IHS Markit and Moody's Analytics.
The outlook for key economic variables includes:
Jobs located in the District decline 1.2 percent in FY 2021 as public health restrictions continue through 2021. A rebound of 4.4 percent growth in FY 2022 brings jobs in the District back up to 2019 levels.
Population growth continues with 12,400 — 1.7 percent — added over the three fiscal years 2020 through 2023. This pace is slower than the 3.1 percent growth from FY 2016 to FY 2019.
Resident employment grows 0.1 percent in FY 2021, with increases of 2.7 percent and 1.2 percent in the following years. The unemployment rate, which was 7.3 percent in FY 2019, rose to an average 7.3 percent rate in FY 2020, increases to 7.4 percent in FY 2021. The rate declines to 5.5 percent by FY 2024, just under pre-pandemic levels.
District personal income growth is 5.8 percent in FY 2021, supported by federal transfers such as the one-time relief check and expanded unemployment compensation. Absent the additional relief in 2021, personal income grows just 1 percent in FY 2022 before returning to normal growth.
The S&P 500 index, rebounding significantly from the March 2020 contraction and setting new highs over the summer and fall, was 15.2 percent higher at the end of 2020 than 2019. The volatile index has grown since the start of 2021 and is projected to end the year 5.3 percent higher but decline modestly in 2022.
Risks to the Forecast
The COVID-19 pandemic's course remains the biggest source of uncertainty for the District and national economies. COVID-19 cases and deaths both surged throughout the fall and into 2021, resulting in the tightening of public health restrictions aimed at slowing the virus spread. In recent weeks, the trend has improved. The availability of two vaccines and the recent announcement of a third are positive developments. While the public health emergency may be abating, risks remain related to the containment of the virus and the pace of full recovery.
The federal relief package, known as the American Rescue Plan Act, will infuse District public health programs with funds for deployment of vaccines, tracking of cases, and care of COVID-19 patients. These funds will also help mitigate a housing crisis with significant levels of rental assistance and provide direct funds to District residents and businesses of sufficient magnitude to weather the next few months of restrictions. While Congress set a $1.9 trillion level for COVID-19 relief earlier this month in an appropriations resolution, the details remain to be negotiated. If the final relief package is significantly less than the current proposal or the composition of grants and direct payments are substantially different, then some of the revenue forecasted in this estimate may not materialize.
The build-up of deferred rent, utility payments, and additional credit card debt remain risks to full recovery, even with the federal relief. Landlords have been prohibited from evicting tenants and it is not clear what the outcome will be when the prohibition is lifted. This risk is significantly reduced by federal rent relief programs both enacted and projected.
As the pandemic recedes, the long-lasting effects will become more apparent. When the public health emergency is lifted, there will likely be a surge in pent-up demand for entertainment — dining, performances, and sports — but the long-term level could be reduced if there is less appetite to travel for business or leisure, greater demand for telework or suburban locations, or continued discomfort about congregating.
Reduced demand for office space because commuters and other office workers may permanently decide to work from home is one of the biggest concerns of the outlook. It remains to be seen how much interest there is to return to offices and what changes will occur that could result in lower demand for non-trophy commercial office space. As many District-area offices switched to full remote working because of the COVID-19 health emergency, some District residents opted to temporarily relocate outside the District. If, post-pandemic, employers shift to greater remote working, these arrangements could become permanent.
Finally, there is the possibility of an emerging risk of inflation which to-date has not been a concern, but the levels of government spending, both here and abroad, over the last 12 months is unprecedented in the absence of a war. It is not clear whether this spending will manifest in inflation in the coming years. One immediate concern is rising yields on government bonds contributing to a correction in the stock market. We currently project growth in the S&P 500 stock index in FY 2021 and a pause in FY 2022 before growing again. Absent the pandemic, the federal reserve may be less inclined to step in for another correction as they did in March 2020.
We will continue to closely monitor national and local economic activity and public health conditions that may affect the forecast. If you have any questions regarding this matter, please contact me at (202) 727-2476.
Sincerely,
Jeffrey S. DeWitt
DISTRIBUTION LIST
Councilmember Anita Bonds (At-Large)
Councilmember Elissa Silverman (At-Large)
Councilmember Robert White (At-Large)
Councilmember Christina Henderson (At-Large)
Councilmember Brianne Nadeau (Ward 1)
Councilmember Brooke Pinto (Ward 2)
Councilmember Mary Cheh (Ward 3)
Councilmember Janeese Lewis George (Ward 4)
Councilmember Kenyan McDuffie (Ward 5)
Councilmember Charles Allen (Ward 6)
Councilmember Vincent Gray (Ward 7)
Councilmember Trayon White (Ward 8)
Kevin Donahue, Interim City Administrator
John Falcicchio, Chief of Staff, Executive Office of the Mayor
Jennifer Reed, Director, Mayor's Office of Budget and Performance Management
Jennifer Budoff, Budget Director, Council of the District of Columbia
Kathy Patterson, District of Columbia Auditor
