CBO Estimates $200 Billion Deficit So Far for Fiscal 2016
CBO Estimates $200 Billion Deficit So Far for Fiscal 2016
- Institutional AuthorsCongressional Budget Office
- Subject Area/Tax Topics
- Jurisdictions
- LanguageEnglish
- Tax Analysts Document NumberDoc 2015-26802
- Tax Analysts Electronic Citation2015 TNT 235-30
DECEMBER 7, 2015
The federal budget deficit was $200 billion for the first two months of fiscal year 2016, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That deficit was $22 billion larger than the one recorded during the same period last year. Revenues and outlays were both higher than last year's amounts, by 3 percent and 6 percent, respectively.
Budget Totals, October-November
(Billions of dollars)
_____________________________________________________________________
Actual, Preliminary, Estimated
FY 2015 FY 2016 Change
_____________________________________________________________________
Receipts 404 416 12
Outlays 583 616 34
Deficit -179 -200 -22
_____________________________________________________________________
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury.
Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for October 2015
and the Daily Treasury Statements for November 2015.
Note: FY = fiscal year.
Total Receipts: Up by 3 Percent in the First Two Months of Fiscal Year 2016 Receipts through November totaled $416 billion, CBO estimates -- $12 billion more than the amount for the same period last year. The largest year-over-year changes were the following:
Individual income taxes and payroll (social insurance) taxes together rose by $19 billion(or 6 percent).
Increases in amounts withheld from workers' paychecks -- $16 billion (or 5 percent) -- accounted for the bulk of that gain. Total wage and salary income and withheld taxes have both grown at about that same rate in recent quarters.
Nonwithheld receipts, mainly from filings of tax returns for 2014 by people who had received filing extensions, rose by $4 billion (or 13 percent). Those increases were slightly offset by income tax refunds that were up by $1 billion (or 9 percent).
Corporate income taxes decreased by about $5 billion (from $13 billion in the first two months of fiscal year 2015 to $7 billion so far this year). Corporate income tax receipts in October and November generally represent a small percentage of the year's total, so the results for those two months are not a significant indicator of the receipts for the fiscal year as a whole. The first quarterly estimated payment of those taxes in the current fiscal year, for most corporations, is not due until December 15.
Receipts, October-November
(Billions of dollars)
_____________________________________________________________________
Estimated Change
_________________________
Major Program Actual, Preliminary, Billions of
or Category FY 2015 FY 2016 Dollars Percent
_____________________________________________________________________
Individual
Income Taxes 193 204 12 6.1
Payroll Taxes 153 161 8 5.0
Corporate Income
Taxes 13 7 -5 -42.1
Other Receipts 45 43 -2 -4.5
___ ___ ___
Total 404 416 12 2.9
Memorandum:
Combined Individual Income and
Payroll Taxes
Withheld taxes 327 344 16 5.0
Other, net of
refunds 19 21 3 15.0
___ ___ ___
Total 346 365 19 5.6
_____________________________________________________________________
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury.
Note: FY = fiscal year.
Total Outlays: Up by 6 Percent in the First Two Months of Fiscal Year 2016
Outlays for the first two months of fiscal year 2016 were $616 billion, or $34 billion higher than they were during the same period last year, CBO estimates. Outlays in several major categories increased:
Outlays for the three largest mandatory programs increased by 7 percent:
Social Security benefits rose by $7 billion (or 5 percent), reflecting typical recent growth in the number of beneficiaries and their average benefits.
Medicare spending increased by $8 billion (or 9 percent), some of which reflects the fact that the payment made to prescription drug plans each fall to account for unanticipated spending increases in the preceding calendar year was larger in 2015 than in 2014.
Outlays for Medicaid rose by $6 billion (or 12 percent), largely because of new enrollees added through the optional expansion of coverage authorized by the Affordable Care Act.
Outlays recorded for the Department of Justice (included in "Other" in the table) increased by $8 billion because in October 2014, that department received proceeds of roughly that amount from a legal settlement with the Bank of America, which had the effect of lowering outlays in fiscal year 2015.
Spending for the Commodity Credit Corporation in the Department of Agriculture (USDA, included in "Other") rose by $3 billion (or 46 percent). Because the 2014 farm bill terminated certain commodity programs, and payments under most new programs authorized by that legislation begin in fiscal year 2016, spending was unusually low in fiscal year 2015.
Spending for military activities of the Department of Defense grew by $2 billion (or 2 percent).
Changes in outlays for other programs mostly offset, on net.
Outlays, October-November
(Billions of dollars)
_____________________________________________________________________
Estimated Change
_____________________
Major Program or Actual, Preliminary, Billions of
Category FY 2015 FY 2016 Dollars Percent
_____________________________________________________________________
Social Security
Benefits 142 149 7 4.6
Medicarea 91 98 8 8.7
Medicaid 53 59 6 12.0
___ ___ ___
Subtotal, Largest
Mandatory Programs 286 306 21 7.3
DoD -- Militaryb 97 98 2 1.7
Net Interest on the
Public Debt 41 41 0 -0.4
Exchange Subsidiesc 4 5 1 22.9
Other 156 166 11 6.8
___ ___ ___
Total 583 616 34 5.8
_____________________________________________________________________
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury.
Note: DoD = Department of Defense; FY = fiscal year.
FOOTNOTES TO TABLE
a Medicare outlays are net of offsetting receipts.
b Excludes spending by DoD on civil programs.
c Subsidies for health insurance purchased through
exchanges established under the Affordable Care Act.
END OF FOOTNOTES TO TABLE
Estimated Deficit in November 2015: $64 Billion
The federal government incurred a deficit of $64 billion in November 2015, CBO estimates -- $7 billion more than the deficit in November 2014. If not for the shifts in payments from November to October in both 2014 and 2015 (because the regular payment dates fell on weekends), the deficit for this November would have been $3 billion more than last November's.
CBO estimates that receipts in November 2015 totaled $205 billion -- $13 billion (or 7 percent) more than those in the same month last year. Individual income taxes and payroll taxes together rose by $14 billion (or 8 percent); an increase in withheld taxes for those sources explains nearly all of that change and in part reflects an extra business day in the month compared with November of last year.
Budget Totals for November
(Billions of dollars)
_____________________________________________________________________
Estimated Change With
Adjustment for Timing
Shiftsa
_______________________
Actual, Preliminary, Estimated Billions of
FY 2015 FY 2016 Change Dollars Percent
_____________________________________________________________________
Receipts 191 205 13 13 7.0
Outlays 248 269 21 16 5.6
Deficit -57 -64 -7 -3 2.9
_____________________________________________________________________
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury.
Note: FY = fiscal year.
FOOTNOTE TO TABLE
a Adjusted amounts exclude the effects of shifting
payments that otherwise would have been made on a weekend. Without
those timing shifts, the budget would have shown a $100 billion
deficit in November 2014 and a $103 billion deficit in November 2015.
END OF FOOTNOTE TO TABLE
Total spending in November 2015 was $269 billion, CBO estimates -- $21 billion more than the sum in November 2014. Adjusted for timing shifts, outlays in November were $16 billion (or 6 percent) more than they were in the same month last year. (The changes discussed below reflect adjustments to account for those shifts.) Among the larger changes in outlays were these:
Spending rose for two of the government's three largest entitlement programs: Social Security spending rose by $3 billion (or 5 percent), and Medicaid outlays rose by $2 billion (or 8 percent).
Spending for military activities of the Department of Defense grew by $5 billion (or 12 percent).
Outlays increased by $2 billion each for several agencies, including the Department of Transportation, the USDA's Commodity Credit Corporation, and the Department of Veterans Affairs.
Medicare spending fell by $3 billion (or 7 percent).
Outlays for net interest on the public debt decreased by $2 billion (or 7 percent).
Actual Deficit in October 2015: $137 Billion
The Treasury Department reported a deficit of $137 billion for October -- the same as CBO estimated last month, on the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements, in the Monthly Budget Review: Summary for Fiscal Year 2015.
This document was prepared by Elizabeth Cove Delisle, Nathaniel Frentz, Dawn Regan, and Joshua Shakin. It is available at www.cbo.gov/publication/51048.
Note: The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.
- Institutional AuthorsCongressional Budget Office
- Subject Area/Tax Topics
- Jurisdictions
- LanguageEnglish
- Tax Analysts Document NumberDoc 2015-26802
- Tax Analysts Electronic Citation2015 TNT 235-30
