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CBO Estimates Immigration Bill Would Cut Deficit by $158 Billion

JUL. 25, 2013

CBO Estimates Immigration Bill Would Cut Deficit by $158 Billion

DATED JUL. 25, 2013
DOCUMENT ATTRIBUTES
  • Institutional Authors
    Congressional Budget Office
  • Cross-Reference
    Tax-related excerpts of S. 744 2013 TNT 113-20: Proposed Legislation.
  • Subject Area/Tax Topics
  • Jurisdictions
  • Language
    English
  • Tax Analysts Document Number
    Doc 2013-18075
  • Tax Analysts Electronic Citation
    2013 TNT 144-16

 

July 25, 2013

 

 

Honorable Jeff Sessions

 

Ranking Member

 

Committee on the Budget

 

United States Senate

 

Washington, DC 20510

 

 

Dear Senator:

 

 

This letter responds to your request that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) show the effect that S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act, as passed by the Senate, would have on the federal budget excluding changes in direct spending and revenues for the Social Security and Medicare Part A trust funds. In the cost estimate for S. 744 as passed by the Senate, CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimated that the effects of enacting the legislation on revenues and direct spending would reduce deficits by $158 billion over the 2014-2023 period and by $685 billion over the 2024-2033 period; those estimates are unchanged.

Those total effects on the deficit reflect estimated cash flows related to Social Security and Part A of Medicare as well as estimated cash flows associated with other revenues and direct spending. As shown in the attached table, CBO and JCT estimate that the act's effects on those two programs would reduce budget deficits by $260 billion over the 2014-2023 period and by $715 billion over the following decade. Thus, excluding the act's effects on direct spending and revenues for the (off-budget) Social Security trust funds and the (on-budget) Medicare Part A trust fund, CBO and JCT estimate that the remaining effects from enacting S. 744 would amount to a deficit increase of $102 billion over the 2014-2023 period and a deficit increase of $30 billion over the 2024-2033 period.

I hope this information is helpful to you. Please let me know if you have any further questions.

Sincerely,

 

 

Douglas W. Elmendorf

 

Enclosure

cc:

 

Honorable Patty Murray

 

Chairman

 

* * * * *

 

 

Congressional Budget Office

 

 

July 25, 2013

 

______________________________________________________________________

 

 

Effect of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act, on Spending and Noninterest Receipts for the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds and Other Spending and Receipts
______________________________________________________________________

 

 

            NET INCREASE OR DECREASE (-) IN THE DEFICIT FROM

 

                CHANGES IN DIRECT SPENDING AND REVENUES

 

 ______________________________________________________________________

 

 

                                                   Billions of Dollars

 

                                                  _____________________

 

 

                                                  2014-2023   2024-2033

 

 ______________________________________________________________________

 

 

 Changes to the Social Security Trust Fundsa         -210        -575

 

 Changes to the Medicare Part A Trust Fundb           -50        -140

 

 Other Changes                                        102          30

 

 

 Total Impact on Deficit                             -158        -685

 

 ______________________________________________________________________

 

 

 Sources: CBO and staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation.

 

 

                               FOOTNOTES TO TABLE

 

 

      a The estimates of net deficit changes related to the Social

 

 Security program reflect estimated increases in spending ($2 billion

 

 over the 2014-2023 period, and $45 billion over the 2024-2033 period)

 

 less estimated increases in payroll tax receipts that would be

 

 credited to the Social Security trust funds ($212 billion over the

 

 2014-2023 period, and $620 billion over the 2024-2033 period). Social

 

 Security outlays and revenues are considered off-budget. The figures

 

 here do not include the effect of the legislation on intragovernmental

 

 interest payments credited to the trust funds.

 

 

      b The estimates of net deficit changes related to the Medicare

 

 Part A program reflect estimated increases in spending (less than $500

 

 million over the 2014-2023 period, and $5 billion over the 2024-2033

 

 period) less estimated increases in tax receipts that would be

 

 credited to the Medicare Part A trust fund ($50 billion over the

 

 2014-2023 period, and $145 billion over the 2024-2033 period). The

 

 figures here do not include the effect of the legislation on

 

 intragovernmental interest payments credited to the trust funds.

 

 

                           END OF FOOTNOTES TO TABLE
DOCUMENT ATTRIBUTES
  • Institutional Authors
    Congressional Budget Office
  • Cross-Reference
    Tax-related excerpts of S. 744 2013 TNT 113-20: Proposed Legislation.
  • Subject Area/Tax Topics
  • Jurisdictions
  • Language
    English
  • Tax Analysts Document Number
    Doc 2013-18075
  • Tax Analysts Electronic Citation
    2013 TNT 144-16
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